Prognosis

11/08/2015

The indexes disclosed by IAV are similar to data from official agencies in the country, such as PMC (Monthly Commerce Survey) by the IBGE. The main difference is that IAV provides public data 30 days before the IBGE analysis is available, presenting results achieved by national retail and helping to guide the market planning processes for the following three months after its disclosure.

About IAV-IDV

Registering sales increases or commerce recessions is one of IAV´s objectives, through relevant studies carried out monthly by IDV with its 64 members. With the participation of national and multinational companies, the index helps trace a broad scenario of the Brazilian economy through retail sales, as it registers commerce progress in a certain period and makes a forecast about consumer behavior for the next three months. IAV is currently the only survey carried out in Brazil that predicts future sales. All other existing surveys measure the percentage of products that have already been purchased.

All of the Institute´s members answer the survey, including representatives from various sectors, including perishable goods, like supermarkets and hypermarkets, food-services and cosmetics, semi-durable goods including clothing, shoes and sport items, bookstores, and durable goods, such as household appliances. The index presents sales performed by companies and an economic forecast for subsequent months.

The questionnaire member companies receive is answered individually and confidentially. Answers are weighted and organized according to each company’s size, so that indicators like the general sales volume and future perspectives are calculated.

IAV began officially disclosing data in 2007, but before becoming an important market indicator, it was performed internally, contributing to member company studies only.
Over time, IAV become widely recognized as a reliable indicator and data was shared with Federal Government agencies, such as the Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. It was only a matter of time until it was disclosed to general public, economists, consultants, and executives.

IAV methodology
The IAV research methodology is based on numbers provided by 64 member companies, which receive and answer a questionnaire with three sections:

  • Sales Index: two questions about actual purchases and sale forecasts,with the purpose of observing commerce progress;
  • Precedent Sales Index: one question about sales and product stocks in the store and a question about total sales in the previous month and sales forecasts for the next three months. The purpose of this number is monitor and analyze sales with PMC (Monthly Commerce Survey), provided by IBGE.
  • Job opportunity growth: one question about the number of opportunities created in the previous month.

The result, disclosed monthly, compiles all of the answers and files according to the segments surveyed.

The final product also uses the IPCA (National Extended Consumer Price Index), calculated by IBGE to deflate nominal values and obtain the real growth percentage.

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